Covid and the market

Investing notes

3/3/20 - after yesterday’s big rally, market opened down. Have been more deaths from coronavirus in the US. Spreading fast outside of China. Probably a dead cat bounce. In response, the fed decreased interest rates by 50 bps. I think the market I going to keep going down. Planning to put more dry powder in if dji reaches 20k. Otherwise, will continue with my IPS.

3/9/21 - snp futures stopped trading last night due to a steep drop. Between coronavirus and oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, oil prices have dropped precipitously. Dow is almost down 2k at 11 am today. I am thinking of buying some at dji 22k, maybe more if it drops below 20k. Nobody knows where the bottom is. Is there a recession around the corner? The sky is falling today.

All of Italy is on lockdown. Craziness. Trump is trying to stop the market by promising payroll tax cuts. Futures are up 500 tonight. We’ll see what happens.

3/12/20

Markets are getting crushed. Trump issued a 30 day travel ban last night from mainland Europe to the US. Tom Hanks and his wife are infected. The nba season, ncaa March madness, my church. Everything is shutting down. Satellite images show mass grave sites in Iran. There is Increased violence against Asians. Debating whether to buy a gun. I am preparing for tax loss harvesting. Bought vlcax and vfwax to partner with total stock and total international, respectively. I hope I’m not catching a falling knife. Heart was pounding when I made those trades. Plan to stock up more on food this weekend.

All sports stopped today. No more crowds.

3-14-20

Fear is settling in. People are panic buying food and supplies. Schools are closed. A national state of emergency has been declared. The fed reserve is pumping $1.5T over the next few days. The fed is meeting this coming week. Stocks mounted a furious rally on Friday. Too bad I put in mutual fund orders on that date and rebalanced.

3-20-20

It has been a crazy time. The government has jumped over $1 trillion to ensure liquidity, but the Market continues to go down. There is an expectation of global recession, likely depression. I’ve been in quarantine awaiting the results of my test. It is eerie given how quiet it is outside. there are multiple stay at home orders in multiple states, including California. It is difficult to isolate myself in my room while my wife struggles with my two kids. I’ve started playing video games to reconnect with my other friends are also in quarantine.  Everything is close from dining restaurants, movie theaters, Gyms, etc. The hospitality industry has been gutted and people are lining up in the tens of thousands for unemployment benefits. Stay at home orders are expected to last for at least eight weeks. School may potentially to be out for the rest of the calendar year. There’s a lot of fear on the streets. There has been violence in the streets against Asians.People are panic buying at the markets. There is no shortage of food, the problem is keeping food on the shelves in markets. There are fears and rumors that doctors may need to practice outside of their specialty to help care for the surge of sick patients. Hospitals are running low on personal protective equipment. I do not have confidence in the current administration to direct efforts to ensure that there is an adequate supply of ventilators and protective equipment. They are deferring to the states, which doesn’t make sense in light of president trump declaring a state of national emergency. The virus count continues to double every couple days. The fatality count is piling up in Italy, France and Spain. I fear that a lot of people are going to die.