3/24/20

“It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose your own.”

 -Harry S. Truman 

Times are getting tough. The entire hospitality industry is struggling to survive from restaurants, hotels, spas, etc. to the travel sector. Given the ban on elective OR procedures and clinic visits, we've had a >90% drop in revenue. We trying to switch to telemedicine, but it pays pennies on the dollar and my old patients are struggling to adapt. I generated fewer than 2 RVU's all day at work yesterday. We don't know how long the stay at home orders are going to last. If there was a strictly enforced lockdown, we could probably get through this quickly, but it's a half-ass effort with people, especially younger ones, boldly deflying orders. Given the caving economy, President Trump, is caving into pressure to open for business, sooner than we're ready. He keeps insisting that it's not as bad as the flu and in his usual petty way is refusing to help New York and it's citizens, pushing blame on Governor Cuomo. New York's numbers are anticipated to peak soon and there is a huge push to try to get PPE and ventilators over to new york. NYC is expected to become the new epicenter of the virus.

Saving lives is the most important, but it doesn't make the pain any less real. We're all watching our incomes drop and dipping in our emergency funds. We're trying to keep the lights on, but realistically, corporate is going to send us home, close a few positions, and never re-open those positions, when we re-open for business. I have patients begging for surgery, but we're only allowed to perform tier 1 emergency cases. This is going to be a rough ride...

3/22/20

I’m still in quarantine and awaiting my results. Coronavirus count - 300k cases worldwide, 12,944 deaths. Over 2 million people have applied for Unemployment benefits this week. I am thankful to have a job and a paycheck. Congress is finalizing a spending bill to send $3k to each family making under a set amount. New Jersey has now gone on lockdown. President trump has given the green light for auto makers to produce ventilators. Curious to see the design that Elon musk comes out with. Italy had almost 800 deaths yesterday. Reports coming out from mayors say the rate may be multiple times higher due to elderly dying at home. The bodies are being carted off in military transports. We’ll see how the markets respond. Nobody knows where the bottom of this is. We are in global recession, fearing global depression.

I've always thought of my job as rock solid, but I'm not completely sure anymore. Elective surgical cases and clinic visits have stopped. My group is starting telehealth, but the decreased efficiency of the schedule and minimal billing due to telephone visits may not even cover overhead costs. This really shows the incredible importance of an emergency fund. If this resolves in a few months, we may be ok. Muni bond funds have taken a big hit, but either way, I'm glad I have bond holdings in my taxable account to draw down from. This is a big risk for people who have all equity in their taxable and bonds in their tax advantaged accounts. In the future, I'm planning to have more treasury holdings. If needed to, I could always draw down my equity portion in my taxable, but I'd be taking a huge hit by selling low. It is incredibly difficult to stay the course at times like this. An IPS is important to keep referencing back to.

Military transport vehicles transporting dead bodies from northern Italy out for cremation.

Covid and the market

Investing notes

3/3/20 - after yesterday’s big rally, market opened down. Have been more deaths from coronavirus in the US. Spreading fast outside of China. Probably a dead cat bounce. In response, the fed decreased interest rates by 50 bps. I think the market I going to keep going down. Planning to put more dry powder in if dji reaches 20k. Otherwise, will continue with my IPS.

3/9/21 - snp futures stopped trading last night due to a steep drop. Between coronavirus and oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, oil prices have dropped precipitously. Dow is almost down 2k at 11 am today. I am thinking of buying some at dji 22k, maybe more if it drops below 20k. Nobody knows where the bottom is. Is there a recession around the corner? The sky is falling today.

All of Italy is on lockdown. Craziness. Trump is trying to stop the market by promising payroll tax cuts. Futures are up 500 tonight. We’ll see what happens.

3/12/20

Markets are getting crushed. Trump issued a 30 day travel ban last night from mainland Europe to the US. Tom Hanks and his wife are infected. The nba season, ncaa March madness, my church. Everything is shutting down. Satellite images show mass grave sites in Iran. There is Increased violence against Asians. Debating whether to buy a gun. I am preparing for tax loss harvesting. Bought vlcax and vfwax to partner with total stock and total international, respectively. I hope I’m not catching a falling knife. Heart was pounding when I made those trades. Plan to stock up more on food this weekend.

All sports stopped today. No more crowds.

3-14-20

Fear is settling in. People are panic buying food and supplies. Schools are closed. A national state of emergency has been declared. The fed reserve is pumping $1.5T over the next few days. The fed is meeting this coming week. Stocks mounted a furious rally on Friday. Too bad I put in mutual fund orders on that date and rebalanced.

3-20-20

It has been a crazy time. The government has jumped over $1 trillion to ensure liquidity, but the Market continues to go down. There is an expectation of global recession, likely depression. I’ve been in quarantine awaiting the results of my test. It is eerie given how quiet it is outside. there are multiple stay at home orders in multiple states, including California. It is difficult to isolate myself in my room while my wife struggles with my two kids. I’ve started playing video games to reconnect with my other friends are also in quarantine.  Everything is close from dining restaurants, movie theaters, Gyms, etc. The hospitality industry has been gutted and people are lining up in the tens of thousands for unemployment benefits. Stay at home orders are expected to last for at least eight weeks. School may potentially to be out for the rest of the calendar year. There’s a lot of fear on the streets. There has been violence in the streets against Asians.People are panic buying at the markets. There is no shortage of food, the problem is keeping food on the shelves in markets. There are fears and rumors that doctors may need to practice outside of their specialty to help care for the surge of sick patients. Hospitals are running low on personal protective equipment. I do not have confidence in the current administration to direct efforts to ensure that there is an adequate supply of ventilators and protective equipment. They are deferring to the states, which doesn’t make sense in light of president trump declaring a state of national emergency. The virus count continues to double every couple days. The fatality count is piling up in Italy, France and Spain. I fear that a lot of people are going to die.